Tuesday, April 3, 2007

Draft Dodgers

There are a few guys that, despite my best efforts, refused to join the army of the Hawgs on Saturday. They will regret it when we're handing out championship rings in October.

Here is the breakdown of my team:

C: Josh Bard -- Might be my biggest draft bargain at $4. He was still available late in the draft. I was not going to even bother with a catcher unless I could have one of three guys. The other two went for twice the money.

1B: Conor Jackson -- Holdover from 2006. Looking for 20HR and 80-90 rbi with a good ob%. Great price for my #1 first bagger.

2B: Ray Durham -- Had to pay a couple dollars more than I wanted, because he came very late in the draft and the other two baggers were off the board. Will be worth the money if he hits like 2006; will not be if he dramatically slumps.

SS: JJ Hardy -- Also overpaid by a dollar or two because the other SS were gone. All I want from this guy is respectability. 330 obp and 10 home runs would be fine.

3B: Morgan Ensberg -- Went for $14. I believe he will be a bargain. Ended 2006 on low note, but that will be a good price for a guy who attains a 360 or better obp and 20+ dingers.

CI: Carlos Delgado -- Didn't really plan to take him, but I think he was a good value in the low 20s. Will hit for solid obp, 30 hr, and 100 rbi in poent Mets lineup.

MI: Ryan Theriot -- The Cubs 2B or SS of the future. Izturis at short has no bat, and DeRosa at 2B can play many positions. Theriot was a late pickup for $1-2. Has wheels and a good eye. Could be a keeper for 2008.

OF: Mike Cameron -- 20/20 guy at the top of the Padres lineup. Solid OF that brings a little pop and speed at the same time. I've had him before, and barring injury, will be pleased with him.

Ryan Freel: Drafted for the wheels. Probably overpaid a little at $23. He can steal everytime he gets to first. Looking for 40 SB and lots of at-bats.

Adam Dunn: Mr. Power. Was one of my "must get" guys. 40hr and 380 obp likely in good Red's offense.

Randy Winn: Disappointment last year, so he went cheap in 2007 ($13). Looking for respectable obp, 15 hr and 15 steals. Doesn't have to do much to earn his value.

Kevin Mench: Late draft fourth outfielder, cheap. Good enough to start for some teams. I expect he might get traded by Milwaukee mid-year, and I may get something good in return for him.

Josh Hamilton: Red's backup to Griffey. Everyone says he is a stud. With Griffey likely to get hurt soon (maybe today), Hamy could get lots of AB. Cost almost nothing to get him.

Starting pitching: Solid rotation of Smoltz, Penny and Myers. Really like this trio and paid $50 for the set. The goal is to keep the whip low while racking up some ks.

Holds: Weathers, Qualls, Capps, Wuertz. I'm loaded here. All four guys should have low whips and a few ks. Three of them could also get some saves.

Saves: Torres, Gordon. Two second-tier relievers for a total of $20. Should keep me middle of the pack in the category for little money.

Overall, I am pleased. I expect to be strong in on base percentage, holds, and whip. Should be average in stolen bases, saves, runs, and homeruns. Might be poor in wins, strikeouts and rbi. I project the following points:

Holds: 12
WHIP: 11
OBP: 11
SB: 9
Saves: 8
Runs: 6
Homeruns: 6
RBI: 5
Strikeouts: 5
Wins: 3

Total: 76 That might be good for third. If a few guys outperform expectations, I might move up a notch.

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